Today I’ll be showing the data I have for Quantdata.us and how it looks. Attached is a screenshot of what the markets looked like at 7:18 AM PST, I made the images smaller, but they are now clickable to show their full size. Normally based on the data I should have sold puts but I missed my chance and I was afraid that markets might go the other way since its very far from vwap. I basically sold against the trend which I normally would not do but in this case we were so high up away from VWAP that selling puts would be even more risky if markets decided to go down. I sold 6930/6935 calls for $0.55 at like 6:42 AM PST. It’s 7:23 and based on the data from quantdata.us, I don’t expect it to go past 6920 as the contract with the most GEX at the moment is 6920. I’m looking to close my position at $0.10.
Update: It’s 7:38 AM and markets pumped up like 5 minutes ago and premiums jumped up to $0.80. I added one more contract at $0.75 so my average premium is $0.65. The Premium now is $0.30. Normally I should be getting out here because i think markets will continue to pump towards the 6920 strike price, but I really don’t think price will hit 6930 today.
Update 2: It’s 9:04 AM PST Markets pumped up like I thought it would all the way to 6920, touched it, and went back down. right now premium is around $0.45. It was really close at one point to closing at $0.20 but stopped at $0.25. Since its already this late in the day, I figured its either I reach profit target at $0.20 in the next hour or I hit my stop loss at $1.00. We’ll see, if it still doesn’t move by then or I don’t hit my take profit. I might close it for a small profit. I’m still green even though I went against the trend. This is a perfect example of even if I chose the wrong way on a position in credit spreads, I can still make profit as long as price doesn’t hit my short(sold) strike which is outside the area of the strike with the most GEX which is 6920. Although this is a bit risky since it goes against the 9/20 ema strategy but I have a strong feeling that price just kind of hovers around this area or goes back down to 6910 before going back to 6920 or just continues to go down towards VWAP. If it can hit 6910 ill definitely hit take profit, I just don’t know if it will reach within the next hour.
Update 3: It’s 9:26 AM PST. My target was hit and price did come back down to 6910. From my experience, when price reaches the strike with the most GEX, which we will call MVC(Most Valuable Contract) for short, it normally goes back down at least 5-10 points from the MVC before climbing back up if its continuing to hold the trend. My GTC order for $0.15 was hit. I know I was supposed to close at $0.20 but I got kind of greedy when it went back down to $0.25 and figured if it hits $0.20 but jumps back to $0.30 I’ll close it then. All in All today was a very green day. I had two swing trades that closed hitting profit target. I’ll link them here, It was the CVNA trade I opened on Friday and the SNDK position I had opened on New Years Eve. I decided to close these positions early at 50% because they were very volatile. Obviously I think both could have given me more premium if I wanted to wait a couple of days, but I didn’t want to risk it since the amount of capital I started with is small. I want to show everyone that even with small capital it’s possible to make it grow into a larger capital as long as you find your way of trading. The trade today really require patience as most of the time I was waiting. I basically waited 3 hours to make $100 which is a long time for some traders.
Update 4: So my Swing Trade for CAT also closed today at $0.20 at last hour before market closed.