So spent the weekend doing backtests with Iron Condors using double Expected Moves. Apparently I’d have more wins as long as price doesnt drop down like a rock. The percentage of wins based on EM X 2 is around 85% from the span of 2 years. However, I don’t know how much premium I would get so I’m doing another test where I will always use the expected move times two unless the difference between opening EM and the previous day close is over 15 point difference. For example today it opened at 30 EM but the previous day close the expected move for today was 61.18. I decided to use 40 which ten points more since if i chose the strikes for 61.18 X 2 it would be only worth $20 for a ten wide which is not worth it. I took a risk here and sold using 40 EM x 2 which gave me those strikes. Was able to get $0.55 in credit per contract and now by 8:00 AM these are worth only $0.15 now. Looking to close these at $0.05 or let them expire worthless if we are more than 40 points away from any of my short strikes by 10 AM PST.
It’s 11 AM PST. I was able to close these positions at $0.05.